AP Physics 2 · Topic 15.7
Topic 15.7: Fission, Fusion, and Nuclear Decay
Unit 15: Modern Physics12-15% of the multiple-choice section
Fusion joins small nuclei into a larger one and fission splits a nucleus into smaller ones. Both release energy when the products weigh less than what went in, because the missing mass becomes energy. Radioactive decay is spontaneous and random per nucleus, so a sample is described by a half-life.
AP Physics: Unit 15 (topics 15.7 Fission, Fusion, and Nuclear Decay). AP Physics 2 Unit 15, Topic 15.7, covering two learning objectives: 15.7.A (describe the physical properties that constrain the behavior of interacting nuclei, subatomic particles, and nucleons, essential knowledge 15.7.A.1 through 15.7.A.8) and 15.7.B (describe the radioactive decay of a given sample of material consisting of a finite number of nuclei, essential knowledge 15.7.B.1 through 15.7.B.3). The topic carries no boundary statement. The CED lists five suggested skills: 1.B, 2.B, 2.C, 3.A and 3.B. Note that 15.7.B.2 labels the logarithmic form as a derived equation rather than a relevant one, and it is not printed on the equation sheet. The CED gives no definition of nuclear binding energy; its only printed definition of binding energy, at 15.3.A.5, is the energy required to remove an electron from an atom. Unit 15 is weighted at 12-15% of the multiple-choice section and estimated at about 14 to 22 class periods.
What Topic 15.7 requires
Topic 15.7 belongs to Unit 15, Modern Physics, which the CED weights at 12-15% of the multiple-choice section and estimates at about 14 to 22 class periods. It is the only topic in Unit 15 with two learning objectives, and one of only two with five suggested skills, so it carries more required content than anything else in the unit.
15.7.A, describe the physical properties that constrain the behavior of interacting nuclei, subatomic particles, and nucleons.
- 15.7.A.1 The strong force is exerted at nuclear scales and dominates the interactions of nucleons, meaning protons or neutrons.
- 15.7.A.2 Possible nuclear reactions are constrained by the law of conservation of nucleon number.
- 15.7.A.3 The behaviour of the constituent particles of a nuclear reaction is constrained by conservation of energy, energy-mass equivalence, and conservation of momentum.
- 15.7.A.4 For all nuclear reactions, mass and energy may be exchanged due to mass-energy equivalence. Relevant equation: .
- 15.7.A.5 Energy may be released in nuclear processes in the form of kinetic energy of the products or as photons.
- 15.7.A.6 Nuclear fusion is the process by which two or more smaller nuclei combine to form a larger nucleus, as well as subatomic particles.
- 15.7.A.7 Nuclear fission is the process by which the nucleus of an atom splits into two or more smaller nuclei, as well as subatomic particles.
- 15.7.A.8 Nuclear fission may occur spontaneously or may require an energy input, depending on the binding energy of the nucleus.
15.7.B, describe the radioactive decay of a given sample of material consisting of a finite number of nuclei.
- 15.7.B.1 Radioactive decay is the spontaneous transformation of a nucleus into one or more different nuclei, or to a lower energy level of the same nucleus.
- 15.7.B.1.i The time at which an individual nucleus undergoes radioactive decay is indeterminable, but decay rates can be described using probability.
- 15.7.B.1.ii The half-life is the time it takes for half of the initial number of radioactive nuclei to have spontaneously decayed.
- 15.7.B.1.iii The decay constant relates to the half-life by .
- 15.7.B.2 A material's decay constant may be used to predict the number of nuclei remaining after a period of time, or the age of a material if the initial amount is known. Relevant equation: . Derived equation: .
- 15.7.B.3 Different unstable elements and isotopes may have vastly different half-lives, ranging from fractions of a second to billions of years.
Topic 15.7 carries no boundary statement. Five of the unit's eight topics carry one; 15.1, 15.4 and 15.7 do not. What limits this one instead is the wording of 15.7.B.2, which frames every decay calculation as either "how many are left" or "how old is it", and the neighbouring topic's boundary statement, which says AP Physics 2 does not expect students to memorise the half-lives of specific isotopes.
The five suggested skills are 1.B create quantitative graphs with appropriate scales and units, including plotting data; 2.B calculate or estimate an unknown quantity with units from known quantities; 2.C compare physical quantities between two or more scenarios or at different times and locations in a single scenario; 3.A create experimental procedures that are appropriate for a given scientific question; and 3.B apply an appropriate law, definition, theoretical relationship, or model to make a claim.
Two of the CED's four Unit 15 sample instructional activities belong to this topic: a desktop experiment in which students roll 200 dice, remove those landing on 1 each turn, graph dice against turns and find a "half-life" of about 3.8 turns; and a subtask exercise estimating how many tons of uranium must be mined to meet the electricity needs of the United States from nuclear power alone. The dice activity is worked through below.
The strong force, and what constrains a nuclear reaction
Essential knowledge 15.7.A.1 gives the strong force one sentence and asks nothing else of it: it acts at nuclear scales and dominates the interactions of nucleons. That is the whole of what AP Physics 2 requires. No range formula, no exchange particles, no coupling strengths. What it explains is why a nucleus holds together when it is a box of protons that repel each other electrically. At nuclear separations the strong force wins.
The rest of 15.7.A is a list of things that must balance. Three constraints, and it is worth noticing what is and is not on the list.
- Nucleon number (15.7.A.2). Protons plus neutrons in, protons plus neutrons out. A reaction that does not balance nucleon number is not a possible reaction, and this is the first check to run on any equation you are handed.
- Energy, including energy-mass equivalence (15.7.A.3, 15.7.A.4). Energy is conserved provided you count mass as a form of it. This is the clause that makes nuclear physics different from everything earlier in the course.
- Momentum (15.7.A.3). The same conservation law as Topic 4.3, applied to fragments flying apart. It is why a stationary nucleus that splits in two sends the pieces in opposite directions, and why the lighter fragment gets the greater speed.
Notice what 15.7.A does not list: charge and lepton number. Those appear in the next topic, at 15.8.A.2.i, which states that in all nuclear decays nucleon number, lepton number and charge are conserved. So the full checking toolkit for a decay equation lives in Topic 15.8, and 15.7 supplies the energy half of the story.
Essential knowledge 15.7.A.5 then says where released energy actually goes: into the kinetic energy of the products, or into photons. Both, in practice. That matters for the framing of a question, because "energy released" in a nuclear reaction is not an abstract quantity, it is the kinetic energy of fragments plus the energy of any gamma rays emitted, and those are things a detector measures.
Mass-energy equivalence, and where nuclear energy comes from
Essential knowledge 15.7.A.4 is the load-bearing statement of the topic: for all nuclear reactions, mass and energy may be exchanged due to mass-energy equivalence, with relevant equation
Read "exchanged" literally. It is not that mass is destroyed and energy appears from nowhere. It is that the same conserved thing has two accounting columns, and a nuclear reaction moves an amount from one to the other. Add up the masses of everything going in, add up the masses of everything coming out, and if the total fell, the difference left as energy.
The scale is what makes this worth a topic. In a chemical reaction the mass change is far too small to weigh. In a nuclear reaction the released energy per event is measured in millions of electron volts, so the mass change is a measurable fraction of the mass involved.
Two lines from the sheet's constants block do all the unit work here, and both must be read off the sheet rather than recalled.
- . The unified atomic mass unit, with its energy equivalent printed alongside it.
- , and .
The second half of that first line is the shortcut. A mass difference expressed in unified atomic mass units, multiplied by , is the energy released in MeV. No powers of ten, no squaring the speed of light. It is worth reaching for that route by default.
A rounding warning, because this is exactly where a checked answer looks wrong. The sheet's two expressions for are rounded independently, so they do not agree to three digits. Take the printed , multiply by and convert with the printed , and you get , not the printed on the same line. A 0.3% gap. Use the figure when you want an answer in MeV, and expect a SI-route answer to differ in the third digit. That is rounding in the reference table, not an error in your working.
Binding energy: what the CED defines, and what it leaves you to build
This section exists because the CED's treatment of binding energy is easy to get wrong by assuming it says more than it does.
The term appears twice in AP Physics 2, and the two uses are not the same thing. Essential knowledge 15.3.A.5, over in Topic 15.3, gives the only definition the CED prints: "Binding energy is the energy required to remove an electron from an atom, causing the atom to become ionized. An atom in the lowest energy level (ground state) will require the greatest amount of energy to remove the electron from the atom." That is an atomic, electron-level definition. Then 15.7.A.8 uses the term of the nucleus, saying fission may occur spontaneously or may require an energy input depending on the binding energy of the nucleus, and never defines that use.
So the CED does not print a definition of nuclear binding energy. What it does hand you is everything needed to build one, and the structure is identical to the atomic case. Binding energy is the energy required to take the thing apart.
- Atomic binding energy (15.3.A.5): the energy to remove an electron from an atom.
- Nuclear binding energy, the same idea one level down: the energy required to separate a nucleus into its individual nucleons.
And 15.7.A.4 supplies the mechanism that makes it measurable. A bound nucleus has less mass than the sum of the separate nucleons that make it up, because energy was released when they came together. Weigh the difference, multiply by , and that is the binding energy. It is the same subtraction used for a reaction, applied to a single nucleus and its parts.
Two consequences carry the reasoning in 15.7.A.8 and in fission and fusion generally.
A more tightly bound nucleus has less mass per nucleon. So a reaction whose products are more tightly bound than its reactants loses mass overall, and releases energy. This is the single sentence that explains why both fusion of light nuclei and fission of heavy nuclei can release energy: both move their material toward the tightly bound middle.
Binding energy per nucleon is the quantity that decides. Total binding energy grows with size simply because there are more nucleons; what tells you whether a reaction releases energy is binding energy per nucleon before and after.
State plainly what you are doing when you write this in an answer. The CED supplies , the mass-energy exchange statement, and the conversion. The nuclear binding-energy definition above is built from those pieces rather than quoted from the framework, and no binding-energy curve or table of nuclear masses appears anywhere in the AP Physics 2 reference material. If a question needs a nuclear mass, it will give it to you.
Fission and fusion, side by side
The CED's two definitions are deliberately parallel, and reading them together is the fastest way to keep them straight.
- 15.7.A.6, fusion: two or more smaller nuclei combine to form a larger nucleus, as well as subatomic particles.
- 15.7.A.7, fission: the nucleus of an atom splits into two or more smaller nuclei, as well as subatomic particles.
Both definitions end the same way. Products are not only nuclei: subatomic particles come out too, and 15.7.A.5 adds that energy may leave as kinetic energy of the products or as photons. So a complete reaction equation has more on the right-hand side than two nuclei, and a question that asks you to balance one will usually be counting those extra particles.
| Fusion (15.7.A.6) | Fission (15.7.A.7) | |
|---|---|---|
| Direction | Small nuclei combine into a larger one | A nucleus splits into smaller ones |
| Also produced | Subatomic particles | Subatomic particles |
| Nucleon number | Conserved (15.7.A.2) | Conserved (15.7.A.2) |
| Energy release | When the product is more tightly bound per nucleon | When the products are more tightly bound per nucleon |
| Does it start on its own? | Not addressed by the CED for fusion | 15.7.A.8: may be spontaneous, or may need energy input |
That last row is worth dwelling on, because 15.7.A.8 is the only essential knowledge statement in this topic about whether a process starts at all. It says fission may occur spontaneously or may require an energy input, depending on the binding energy of the nucleus. Two things follow.
Not all fission is spontaneous. A nucleus can be energetically able to split and still sit there indefinitely until something disturbs it, which is why induced fission is a thing you can switch on.
"Releases energy" and "happens by itself" are different questions. Skill 3.B questions in this topic often turn on exactly that distinction, and answering the first when you were asked the second is a way to lose a mark while writing true physics.
For fusion the CED says nothing about spontaneity, so do not assert anything about it as required content.
Radioactive decay is probability, not a schedule
Essential knowledge 15.7.B.1 defines radioactive decay as the spontaneous transformation of a nucleus into one or more different nuclei, or to a lower energy level of the same nucleus. That second clause is easy to skip and it is what gamma decay is, covered in Topic 15.8: the nucleus does not become a different nucleus, it just drops in energy.
Then 15.7.B.1.i makes the statement that the whole of 15.7.B rests on: the time at which an individual nucleus decays is indeterminable, but decay rates can be described using probability.
Take that seriously and two conclusions follow that students routinely get wrong.
A nucleus does not age. There is no countdown inside it, no accumulated wear, no "due" nucleus. A nucleus that has survived ten half-lives has exactly the same chance of decaying in the next second as a freshly made one.
Half-life is a property of the sample's statistics, not a lifetime. Essential knowledge 15.7.B.1.ii defines as the time for half of the initial number of radioactive nuclei to have spontaneously decayed. Nothing in that sentence says any particular nucleus lasts that long.
The exponential is what a constant per-nucleus probability looks like when you have many nuclei. If every surviving nucleus has the same chance of going in the next interval, the number decaying is proportional to the number left, and the population falls by the same factor in each equal interval rather than by the same amount. Halving after , halving again after another , and so on forever, never reaching zero in the model.
The CED's own desktop activity for this topic makes the point physically. Roll 200 dice, remove every die showing a 1, record how many are left, repeat. No die knows how many turns have passed and no die is ever "due", yet the group as a whole halves on a predictable schedule, which the CED gives as about 3.8 turns. The third worked example below derives that 3.8 from , and the agreement is exact rather than approximate.
Essential knowledge 15.7.B.3 closes the objective by noting that half-lives range from fractions of a second to billions of years. That range is why the graph section that follows insists on the logarithmic form: a quantity spanning twenty orders of magnitude in time is not something you read off a linear axis.
The two decay equations, and the graph that linearises them
Two equations, both printed in the Modern Physics group of the AP Physics 2 sheet, and one that is not.
On the sheet:
Not on the sheet: . The CED labels this one a derived equation in 15.7.B.2, in contrast with the "relevant equation" label it puts on immediately above it. Counting the Modern Physics group confirms it: ten entries, and the logarithmic form is not among them. Deriving it is one line, taking the natural log of both sides of the exponential, and doing that line explicitly is what suggested skill 2.B is paying for.
Watch the symbol . On this sheet it means two different things in two different groups, and the sheet's own symbol table for the Modern Physics column says so, defining as "wavelength or decay constant". In it is a decay constant with units of inverse time. In two entries earlier it is a wavelength in metres. Nothing distinguishes them except context.
Reading . The decay constant is the probability per unit time that a given nucleus decays, so a large means a short half-life. The two are inversely proportional, with as the constant of proportionality, and that number appears because "half" is what the definition in 15.7.B.1.ii picks out. Nothing about one half is special to the physics; it is a convention that makes the number easy to talk about.
The graph, which is where skill 1.B lives. against is an exponential curve, and reading a rate constant off a curve by eye is hopeless. The derived equation fixes that.
Plot on the vertical axis against on the horizontal axis and you get a straight line with
- slope , negative because the population falls, and
- vertical intercept , because at , and .
The line passing through the origin is a genuine check on the data rather than a fitted parameter. If your best-fit line misses the origin, either is wrong or the counting is.
A variant worth recognising: plotting rather than gives the same slope with a vertical intercept of , which is useful when the initial count is what you are trying to find. Once you have from the slope, the half-life is , and skill 3.A questions about designing the measurement come down to saying you would count decays at several times, plot the logarithm, and take the slope.
Traps, and how 15.7 gets tested
Pair each of the five suggested skills with what it catches.
1.B, graph. Plotting against and trying to read off the curve. Take logs first.
2.B, calculate. Unit collisions. A decay constant in inverse days used with a time in hours, or a mass difference in kilograms multiplied by . Fix the units before substituting.
2.C, compare. Two samples, two half-lives, and the question is which has more nuclei left after a fixed time. Compare , the number of halvings, not the raw times.
3.A, design. An experiment question wants the plot named, not just the measurement. Say you would count remaining nuclei at several times and plot the logarithm against time.
3.B, claim. Confusing "releases energy" with "happens spontaneously", which 15.7.A.8 explicitly separates.
Six errors worth naming.
- Treating half-life as a lifetime. After two half-lives a quarter remains, not none. After ten half-lives about a thousandth remains. The model never reaches zero.
- Subtracting instead of dividing. Three half-lives leaves , not .
- Using . The factor of is on the sheet. Leaving it out makes every answer about 44% wrong.
- Believing a nucleus can be overdue. 15.7.B.1.i rules it out. Past survival changes nothing.
- Reaching for a half-life from memory. The next topic's boundary statement says AP Physics 2 does not expect students to know the half-lives of specific isotopes, so a question that needs one will supply it.
- Reporting an MeV answer to four figures. The sheet's own conversions disagree in the third digit, so three significant figures is the honest ceiling.
On exam shape: the AP Physics 2 exam runs 3 hours, with 42 multiple-choice questions and 4 free-response questions, split 50/50 by weight. The Unit 15 overview notes that the first free-response question is the Mathematical Routines question, which asks students to calculate or derive an expression, use a representation, and make and justify claims, and it says that question can pull content from any of the seven units. A decay-curve question with a linearisation and a claim attached is that shape exactly.
For what each decay type does to a nucleus, and the conservation checks that go with it, see Topic 15.8. For nuclear structure and notation, see Topic 15.2. For the conservation-of-energy habits this topic extends, see Topic 3.4 and the conservation of energy guide. The Unit 15 overview puts the eight topics in order, and the AP Physics 2 equation sheet is where the ten Modern Physics entries live.
Turning a mass difference into energy, two ways
In a nuclear reaction the total mass of the products is less than the total mass of the reactants. (a) Find the energy released in MeV. (b) Find it again in joules, working entirely in SI units. (c) Account for any difference between the two answers.
(a) The sheet prints . The second form is built for this job: a mass in unified atomic mass units times gives the energy directly.
. One multiplication, no exponents.
(b) The SI route. First convert the mass: .
Then apply from 15.7.A.4: .
Convert that to MeV with the sheet's : .
(c) The two answers are and , a difference of about . This is not an arithmetic slip. Run the sheet's own conversion on a single mass unit: , while the same line of the sheet prints .
So the sheet's two expressions for are each rounded to three figures independently and do not reproduce each other exactly. Quote , from the direct conversion, and do not chase the third digit.
For scale, put the answer beside the electron volts of the earlier topics in this unit. A visible photon carries a couple of electron volts and a photoelectron leaves with a fraction of one. This single nuclear event released tens of millions of electron volts, which is why 15.7.A.4 is stated for all nuclear reactions and never comes up for chemical ones.
Finally, 15.7.A.5 says where that energy goes: into the kinetic energy of the products, or into photons. It does not vanish into the equation.
(a) . (b) , which is . (c) The gap is rounding in the reference table: the sheet's works out to rather than the printed beside it.
How much is left, and how long until a target fraction
A sample starts with nuclei of an isotope whose half-life is days. (a) Find the decay constant. (b) How many nuclei remain after days? (c) How long until only of the original nuclei remain?
(a) Straight from 15.7.B.1.iii: . Keeping the time unit as days throughout means never converting, so long as is also in days.
(b) Use the relevant equation from 15.7.B.2: with , which is dimensionless as an exponent must be.
, so nuclei.
Check it a completely different way, using halvings instead of the exponential. half-lives, so the fraction remaining is . Identical, as it must be, because is exactly what makes the two forms the same equation.
Sense check with the bracketing whole numbers: three half-lives would leave and four would leave . Our sits between them, closer to the four-half-life end, which matches being closer to 4 than to 3.
(c) Going the other way needs the derived equation the CED names in 15.7.B.2, . Derive it in one line by taking the natural logarithm of both sides of , since it is not printed on the equation sheet.
Substitute : , so .
Check by halvings again, working in half-lives from the start this time: needs half-lives, and . The same answer by a different route.
Note the shape of the answer. Getting from to took 8 days; getting from to took another 4.6 days on top of the first 30. Equal time intervals remove equal fractions, never equal amounts, which is the practical content of 15.7.B.1.i.
(a) . (b) nuclei remain, which is of the original. (c) days, or half-lives.
The CED's dice experiment, and where its 3.8 turns comes from
The CED's sample activity for this topic has students start with 200 dice, shake them, remove every die showing a 1, and repeat, graphing dice against turns. It states the resulting half-life as about 3.8 turns. Show that predicts exactly that, and find how many dice remain after 4 turns.
Set up the probability, which is what 15.7.B.1.i says decay rates are described by. Each die has 6 equally likely faces and is removed on a 1, so the chance any given die survives one turn is , and it is the same on every turn regardless of how many turns that die has already survived.
After turns the expected number left is . This is already an exponential decay, just written with base instead of base .
Convert it to the CED's form. Write , which identifies the decay constant as per turn.
Now apply 15.7.B.1.iii, rearranged: turns. That is the CED's 3.8, reproduced from the relationship rather than measured.
Dice after 4 turns: , so about 96 or 97 dice.
Cross-check against the half-life just found. Four turns is half-lives, so a fraction just under one half should remain, and is indeed just under one half. The two descriptions are the same equation, so they cannot disagree by more than the rounding in the exponent.
Now the physics the activity is teaching. No die remembers anything. A die that has survived twelve turns has the same chance of removal as one on its first turn, which is 15.7.B.1.i in a form you can hold in your hand. The group still halves on schedule, because a fixed probability per die applied to many dice is exactly what produces an exponential.
The graph the activity asks for is where skill 1.B comes in. Plotting dice against turns gives a curve; plotting against turns gives a straight line through the origin with slope per turn, and reading the half-life off that slope is far more reliable than eyeballing where the curve crosses 100.
One honest limitation to state if you write this up: 200 dice is a small sample, so a real run scatters around these numbers. That scatter is not experimental sloppiness, it is the randomness itself, and it is the reason real decay measurements use enormous numbers of nuclei.
The survival probability per turn is , giving per turn and turns, matching the CED's stated value. After 4 turns about dice remain.
Frequently asked questions
What is the difference between nuclear fission and nuclear fusion?
Fusion combines two or more smaller nuclei into a larger nucleus, and fission splits the nucleus of an atom into two or more smaller nuclei. Those are the AP Physics 2 CED's definitions, essential knowledge 15.7.A.6 and 15.7.A.7, and both add that subatomic particles are produced as well. Both conserve nucleon number, and both can release energy, because both can move material toward nuclei that are more tightly bound per nucleon. The CED adds one asymmetry: 15.7.A.8 says fission may occur spontaneously or may require an energy input depending on the binding energy of the nucleus, and it says nothing equivalent about fusion.
Where does the energy released in a nuclear reaction come from?
From mass. AP Physics 2 essential knowledge 15.7.A.4 states that for all nuclear reactions, mass and energy may be exchanged due to mass-energy equivalence, with E = mc squared as the relevant equation. If the products of a reaction have less total mass than the reactants, that missing mass has become energy, and the amount is the mass difference times the speed of light squared. Essential knowledge 15.7.A.5 says where it goes: into the kinetic energy of the products, or out as photons.
How do you convert a mass difference into energy in MeV?
Multiply the mass difference in unified atomic mass units by 931 MeV. The AP Physics 2 constants block prints 1 u = 1.66 times 10 to the minus 27 kilograms = 931 MeV over c squared, and the second form is designed for exactly this conversion, so a mass loss of 0.0350 u releases 0.0350 times 931 = 32.6 MeV. Going the long way round in SI units gives 32.7 MeV, because the sheet rounds its two expressions for 1 u independently. Use the 931 MeV per c squared route and quote three significant figures.
What is the decay constant and how is it related to half-life?
The decay constant, written as lambda, is the probability per unit time that any given nucleus decays, so it has units of inverse time. AP Physics 2 essential knowledge 15.7.B.1.iii relates it to half-life by lambda = ln 2 divided by t-half, and that equation is printed on the equation sheet. A large decay constant means a short half-life and vice versa. The factor of ln 2, about 0.693, is there only because the half-life is defined around the fraction one half; leaving it out and using 1 over t-half instead makes every answer wrong by about 44 percent.
How do you calculate how much of a radioactive sample is left?
Use N = N-zero times e to the minus lambda t, the relevant equation the AP Physics 2 CED gives in essential knowledge 15.7.B.2, with the decay constant lambda found from ln 2 divided by the half-life. Both equations are on the sheet. A fast independent check is to count halvings: the fraction remaining is one half raised to the power of t divided by the half-life, which must give the same answer. So after 3.75 half-lives, 7.43 percent remains, whichever route you take. Equal time intervals remove equal fractions of what is left, never equal numbers of nuclei.
Is ln(N/N0) = -lambda t on the AP Physics 2 equation sheet?
No. The AP Physics 2 CED labels it a derived equation in essential knowledge 15.7.B.2, deliberately distinguishing it from the relevant equation N = N-zero times e to the minus lambda t printed just above. Counting the Modern Physics group on the equation sheet confirms it: ten entries, and the logarithmic form is not one of them. You derive it in one line by taking the natural logarithm of both sides of the exponential, and it is the form you need whenever time is the unknown or whenever you are plotting data to find the decay constant from a slope.
Why can you not predict when a single nucleus will decay?
Because there is nothing inside the nucleus that keeps time. AP Physics 2 essential knowledge 15.7.B.1.i states that the moment an individual nucleus decays is indeterminable, and that decay rates can only be described using probability. A nucleus that has already survived ten half-lives has exactly the same chance of decaying in the next second as one that was made a moment ago, so no nucleus is ever overdue. Predictability appears only in large samples, where a fixed chance per nucleus per unit time produces a smooth exponential fall.